General Chat

Didn't George Bush win a lower share of popular vote than his opponent when winning second term. Seem to remember his brother, Florida, strange ticks......

Never mind, your basic premise is correct, i.e. that it can happen (and has happened) that the party that gets second in the popular vote can form the government by having the largest number of seats..

I stand corrected KenSE :-(

I misread the information on my site and quoted the figures from the election prior to the 2010 one not the 2010 ones :-S

Now huddled in a corner clutching my teddy and trying not to cry ;-)

I don't know where you got your figures from, Mayfield. The BBC site for the 2010 election says Con 35, Lab 29, LD 23.

Liberals are believed to lie (student fees rankles still). Labour have week leadership, though I do think some of their people are doing really well now. Maria Eagles, Rachel Reeves, Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Chuku Umunna, Caroline Flint. All coming through as very good and solid spokespeople - not patronising, interesting and bright.

Tories are definitely doing better - a lot better than many expected this time last year.

Agree with KenSE about UKIP. Done it, caused a midterm earthquake for Labour and Tories alike. Will affect the result in 11 months time as third party. But they have some very nasty people and ideas just bubbling below surface and smiley/beer-swilling Nigel is not a very good politician imo. He is a bit of a bully and has deep convictions that strike a chord temporarily (I hope).

Lib/Dems are not finished at all imo. There are still more people who like their ideas (they have struck a chord with pro-Europe and higher tax thresholds) and Clegg is still best chance to bag a few seats again.

And what does Newark really tell us about next year. Main benefit is that the Apathy Party will not get 70% of the vote. I think people are beginning to engage. 53% turnout was high and points to 60-80% in General Election and a good democratic reflection of how we really want to be led through to 2020.

As said it is very difficult for any new party to break into politics.

At the 2010 election Cons got 32.4% and Lab 35.2%, as a lifelong floating voter I don't really have any favorites, but it seems wrong that when a party gets over a third of the votes cast they are pushed into second place.

A good example is my local MP, he had such a majority that if all the other parties votes were put together he would still have almost double that number, so any supporter of another party living here has in reality no chance of affecting goverment policy.

No doubt the Prime Minister and his ministers will do the tour of the media studios, to pronounce that the result of the Newark election, shows that the electorate have shown they support the governments policies, albeit they will say they still have work to do - so let me get this right, the governing party's majority is slashed by around 50% and that shows the electorate support the governments policies :-S

Conservative - 17,431 votes - down 8.9% on last Gen Election
UKIP - 10,028 votes - plus 22.1%
Labour 6,842 votes - down 4.6%
Lib Dems 1,004 votes - down 17.4%

Lib Dems were sixth, beaten by Greens and Mr Bagguley (Hospital closures)

For Tories, first by election victory triumph in power for 25 years, and 8.9% was least swing away in any by-election this Parliament. So a goodish night.

For UKIP, second best performance in by election this parliament (Mrs James did better in Eastleigh). So quite good, but lower than expectations.

For Labour, quite disappointing. It will raise further questions about leadership of Ed Milliband

For Lib Dems, an absolute disaster. Lost deposit, only got just over 1,000 votes.

One thought I had was that Lib Dems need to strike some deal with Tories that, where there is currently a sitting Lib Dem in Parliament, the Tories will not oppose in that seat. Not sure how workable that is, but only chance of many Libs getting in next year. Otherwise, it will be a handful of Lib Dems in West Country and a handful in Scotland. And who can tell whether Scotland will be electing any MPs to Westminster next year

Exit poll suggests that Tories will just win. If so, first by election win whilst in power for Tories in 25 years (and candidate then was William Hague).

UKIP appear to be running them a close second (possibly too close to call easily). With Labour a few points back in third place.

:-D :-D :-D

It won't matter who wins Newark of the General Election ;-)

Members of Parliament - a poem by Paul Wilkins
© Paul Wilkins 24/04/2008

When it comes to Prime Minister David Cameron of The Tories
He tells very silly made up stories
Just being generous to many an MP
Whilst not caring a toss for you or me
The leaders of this country have a very cold heart
And in ending poverty don’t play a part

Most of the Tax that we pay
MP's spoil themselves with day after day
They just show lots and lots of greed
Not bothered about anyone else’s need
The leaders of this country have a very cold heart
And in ending poverty don’t play a part

Our pay-rises never keep up with inflation
Which is always going up with no hesitation
As MP's only give us a 2 or 3% pay-rise
They double their own money with no big surprise
The leaders of this country have a very cold heart
And in ending poverty don’t play a part

Whilst we’re only allowed a few weeks leave
They have months off so I believe
With Parliament doing things their own way
Nothing’s going to be ok
The leaders of this country have a very old heart
And in ending poverty don’t play a part

"He was also accused of sexism and racism nearly a decade before standing for UKIP and said he once sparked a punch-up on a 90s TV show after saying women should stay in the bedroom or the kitchen.

The 81-year-old previously told how he was arrested in 2005 on suspicion of inciting racial hatred after he wrote an article entitled “F****** foreigners.”"

Why on earth have UKIP sacked him?

Another one bites the dust

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/dave-small-resigns-redditch-council-7221248

What has happened to all the news about Newark? The possible UKIP "landslide" and Labour challenge in traditional Tory seat was top of news a couple of days ago.

Will Newark be boring today and shoe in the Tory. Or are Monster Raving Loonies and UKIP making a charge?

Ronnie O'Sullivan might be an option, Dermot. ;-)

Waiting for political messiahs to save us is futile.

Someone needs to give the long-suffering UK citizens a break.

Hello, sweet pea :-D <3

And hello AnnC too ;-)

Yes, there have been quite a few shocks - but Orpington was first one I remember. 52 years ago, KenSe. Can we be that old?

Doubt that a UKIP win at Newark would have same effect. The shock was UKIP doing so well in European elections, and they have quite a different approach to the 2 main parties (Lab and Tory). Hate almost all UKIP policies (and leader is far to European for me, and hope that does not sound too racist).

But quite a refreshing change and UKIP have certainly made politics a bit more colourful (sic) and engaged voters more. And drawn some in from the Apathy Party.

not long to wait then

The current national polling is:
1. Labout 34%
2. Cons 25%
3. UKIP 19%
4. Lib Dems 6%
And most of that is likely to hold up for next 11 months. Lib Dems will probably do better because they concentrate where they have a real chance of getting in.

Doubt this will affect Newark on Thursday. It will be between UKIP, Cons and Lab. Cons are clear favourites, but electorates like to give a bloody nose to ruling parties. Put your money on UKIP. You will all remember Orpington and Eric Lubbock in 1933 or 1934.

And recent polling
Date(s)
conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Cons Lab Lib Dem UKIP Others Lead
27 May – 1 Jun Lord Ashcroft 1,000 42% 20% 6% 27% 5% 15%
27–28 May Survation/The Sun 606 36% 27% 5% 28% 5% 8%

So Tories just ahead, with Labour and UKIP very close in the Sun poll. Margins between these 3 parties remain tight, with all the big guns monopolising the Market Square in Newark and pressing the flesh and cross contaminating all fresh food purchases.