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Ignoring how you feel about the parties, how do you think it will pan out?
my guess at the moment is:
UKIP will get a lot of votes but only a few seats due to the first past the post system.
Scottish national party will cripple Labour by taking votes in their traditional strongholds.
Liberals will come last with the Greens.
Conservatives will have the most seats and because of the split votes in Scotland they may still be able to form a parliament without a coalition.
How do you think it will go, rather than how you wish it will go?
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I'm inclined to agree - the SNP situation could, ironically, play directly into the Conservatives' hands.
As far as UKIP is concerned, it effectively means that no amount of gerrymandering will actually benefit the Conservatives to any great extent.
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Conservatives will have the most seats by a narrow margin, but may still need a coalition to guarantee a majority. Not sure if LibDem will want to team up again with them.
Labour might try to form one with the SNP in return for even more favourable devolved powers.
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'Labour's traditional working class supporters are abandoning the party in their droves'. ('Analysis' - BBC Radio 4 - 21.03.2011).
Any difference nearly 4 years later?
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Mayfield I have no opinion well not one I am willing to put on the internet :-D but I do think you are brave going for a non biased election thread :-D
well done ;-)
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Yes Mayfield,
I think this going to be the most difficult election result to predict -EVER.
So many people have been disappointed with their Party and want to change, anything could happen.
If the Monster Raving Loony Party put up a Candidate in every Ward, they could even win.
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I cannot see either of the two main parties winning an outright majority to enable them to govern on their own.
If I was a betting man I would probably put my money on the next government being a coalition of Labour, SNP, and Liberal Democrats, as I think that Labour will win a handful of seats more than the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will not, especially if any of their key players lose their seats, want to be part of another coalition with the Conservatives.
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It is not difficult to predict at all. Labour will be the largest party and will govern as a minority govt in the same way as James Callaghan 1975-1979. Major assumption: UK not at war with Russia.
What is difficult is to make a prediction using the polling and statistical extrapolation methods favored by polling firms. Also don't forget that Labour has a built in 5% advantage over the Tories as the LibDems blocked reform of consit. boundaries.
All you have to do is to look at a list of the 150 marginals and tick which way they will go - a bit like doing the pools.
The Tories - Busted flush.
No governing party since 1945 has increased its share of seats at a general election.
Abraham Lincoln had a simple dictum which was that in order to win an election the sitting party must have made more winners than losers. That is is obviously not true for the Tories.
UKIP are going to take > 10% of the vote all over England with the result that Labour will take more than enough Tory marginals to compensate for their own losses to the SNP.
The Tories themselves are hopelessly divided. Just watch the coming cat fight over the leadership. Brave Dave will vanish to make millions in the City. Osbourne too after he fails to get the leadership.
Labour - he only does it to annoy, Because he knows it teases.
Despite having a leader who seems not to know let alone be able to communicate whatever policies Labour has ( please post a list if anybody knows ) UK elections are never about the leader. Atlee was not much of a media star either yet he got plenty done.
They will win big in Tory marginals thanks to UKIP. True Labour has dipped its toes in the murky purple waters but has backed off from all that.
Big biz says they want to stay in the EU. The best way of getting that is a Labour win. Ignore big mouths not paying tax in Monaco. Labour knows who its friends are even if Ed Balls won't say..
Labour will get hammered in Scotland but thanks to Murphy not so badly as the SNP thinks. Labour have a cunning plan ( Baldrick ) to deal with the SNP. They will not form any sort of coalition. Instead Labour will cede to the SNP complete home rule keeping only foreign policy, defense and currency/fiscal policy to London. In return SNP will not vote against a Labour govt. All this will probably require legislation which the Tories ( England votes for English law ) can only support. In order to keep the SNP in line it will be left dependent on the Barnett formula - oil will not rebound during the next parliament.
LibDems - Humpty Dumpty had a great fall
The party are going to get hammered. Clegg is 10% behind Labour in Sheffield, many of their seats are highly marginal and susceptible to the Green vote.The students haven't bothered to register.
The party is very divided - some such as Danny Alexander are really Tories while Vince Cable would feel more at home on a Labour front bench.
UKIP - whatever you want
The pushmi-pullyu (pronounced "push-me—pull-you") is a "gazelle-unicorn cross" which has two heads (one of each) at opposite ends of its body. When it tries to move, both heads try to go in opposite directions.
Despite all its many contradictions and fallacies the party mirrors a certain sort of English voter who believe in a country which never existed outside of the fevered dreams of Melanie Philips and Paul Dacre. Oh yes, G7 too. England is Barking not East Coker.
They might hold on to Clacton. Or maybe not. They have a chance of winning a handful of east coast seats. Their key impact is to hit the Tories hard. As Brave Dave is still not offering a straight in/out EU referendum UKIP voters are not to be swayed. So they are going to engineer a Labour govt. Heh heh.
Greens - they went to sea in a sieve
Something about activities badly managed in breweries. Ask anybody who has endured their regime in Brighton how it has been. Not serious.
At a guess the next parliament will be more democratic and more entertaining than the last 5 years.
Assuming a Labour govt. cheap oil, an end to the bedroom tax and money in punter's pockets the tax take will swell and the deficit cease to be the be all and end all of British politics. If they make no more than the average number of mistakes they will win easily in 2020.
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