General Chat

After UKIP won the Rochester & Strood by-election, the current mix of MP's in the House of Commons, excluding the Speakers parliamentary seat, is:-

Conservative = 303; Labour = 257; Liberal Democrat = 56; Democratic Unionist = 8; Scottish National Party (SNP) = 6; Sinn Fein = 5; Independent = 3; Plaid Cymru = 3; Social Democratic & Labour Party = 3; Alliance = 1; Green = 1; Respect = 1; UK Independence Party (UKIP) = 2.

Do you think this will change dramatically after the general election on 07 May 2015 and will this result in another coalition government?

I ask because there is much speculation that UKIP will gain seats from all of the three main parties and that - the SNP will take quite a few seats in Scotland from the Labour Party.

This tread is about the current political scene and whether public opinion might change and if it does - what a future government may look like.

It certainly looks that way. Whether the Tories or Labour could stomach a coalition with UKIP or SNP is a big question.

Labour would probably have to agree to another referendum on Scottish Independance which would be a problem for them in the subsequent election.

Goodness knows what UKIP would demand.

Definitely going to be an interesting general election.

The known unknowns are that UKIP will pick up some seats (but how many?) and if Ed Milliband has any political nous whatsoever. As a guide his main political guru has never had a job except in Millbank and sits for Moss Side/Harpurhey Manchester. He has sent Jim Murphy to pacify the Scots which is a bit like Dave Cameron sending Theresa May to the police conference or Gove to pacify the teachers. He did? Well there you go.

The unknown unknowns are the price of Nicola Sturgeons knickers and the capacity of Cameron, Johnson, May, Osbourne to engage in political fratricide.

Not for nothing are we about to be treated to the gothic horrors of the Plantagenets on Channel 5.

The known known is that the next parliament is unlikely to endure for five years though it might in which case the phrase "fighting like cats in a sack" comes to mind.

For those needing a guide to the Plantagenets

(a) the island of Britain was divided into the south & London, the Midlands ( see HS2), and the (rebellious) North (friends needed in). Scotland was a sort of army training ground. Wales served for practice in grinding the serfs under the heel and public works ( castle building ). Once the junior Marcher Lords had got the hang of things in Wales they were allowed to go for the real thing in Scotland and Ireland. Ireland was popular as no rules at all.

(b) then as now Europe was not popular being a black hole for money and treacherous. Shakespeare tried to talk it up but ultimately the Tudors gave it up as a bad job.Much easier to take on the Pope and far more cash positive.

(c) the nastiest hatchet jobs were reserved close family esp fathers, wives and sons.

Not much has changed except the gore is virtual on X-Box and PS4.. So far.

:-D

'Democracy works only if we are prepared to be ruled by our opponents, however much we may dislike them. We need to accept politics as a process of compromise & conciliation'. (Roger Scruton.)

On present standing it looks as if labour will lose a large chunk of their Scottish saets to the SNP and Liberal Democrats will lose most of theirs to a mixture of other parties.
Both Conservatives and Labour will lose a few seats to UKIP, exact numbers uncertain but probably more Conservative than Labour.
The Liberal Democrats threw a tantrum and refused to have an Electoral Commission umless proportional representation was introduced so there is an inbuilt advantage in Labour's favour. But Millipede is desperately unpopular and untrusted.
So I reckon it's still anybody's guess.

Dermot is quite right but the Republican Tea Party, the SNP and several other allegedly democratic groups don't agree. Neither does quite a lot of the Tory front bench.

While the various leaders in Northern Ireland may not be on everybody's Christmas card list their progress in carrying out Dermot's dictum is very impressive. So are the results if you spent any time in 1970s Ulster.

With the country in a state; unbelievably in debt; and the parties at each other's throats, I dare to suggest a proper coalition would work best for the country, until we get properly back on our feet.

I think much more would be done to right our wrongs that way, which will not be done by a hung parliament.

Happy days

We have had a proper coalition for the past 5 years. Its main objective and raison d'etre was to eliminate the "deficit".
Nothing of the sort has happened it never will.

Quite a few political commentators are predicting that UKIP will win the Rochester & Strood by-election, the question is by how many votes, if UKIP dramatically slashes the Tory majority (just under 10,000 at the last election), the result could see some other Tory MP's, especially those on the Eurosceptic wing of the party, defecting to UKIP.

Apart from the Rochester & Strood by-election, we also have the Chancellor's Autumn Statement due in just over two weeks time which will give an insight of what may be in his last budget before next years general election, the statement is expected to be a blue print for more cuts & austerity - both events will add to David Cameron's woes, combinations of political infighting and unpopular measures, have seriously wounded, sometimes fatally, prime ministers and their parties in the past.

We are certainly going to live in interesting times.

The austerity policy has done nothing more than push the economy into a hole. Osbourne believes more of the same will do the trick others may be thinking about "stop digging".

Our continental foes(deleted) fiends (stet ) friends have a more savage austerity policy, Osbourne is enviously regarding their much bigger hole.

In democracies patience soon wears thin even for wartime governments as Churchill found out in 1945. Policies for peacetime sack cloth wear out even faster especially if said policy not seen to be delivering.

UKIP are pointing out the b-y obvious that the emperor has no clothes. Beyond that they don't have much to say but are likely to pick up most of the Alf Garnett vote seriously damaging the Tories in such seats as Romford, Norwich and Broxtowe.

Given the UKIP effect and that parliamentary constituency boundaries have a 5% built in bias to Labour detailed polling suggests that Milliband will be in with a 40 seat majority. An SNP landslide in Scotland is unlikely.

The Tories should remember that the voters tend to opt for hope over experience. That is why in politics focus is or should be on the younger voter.

GH7 1/2 is right - an EU referendum is unlikely. A big row with the Scots is not.

"In a democracy you can have sound money or full employment but not both at the same time."
"In the long run we are all dead"
John Maynard Keynes

In the long run landlords and financiers tend to end up hanging from lamp posts and jumping from tall buildings while the survivors get long jail sentences, at least in the USA. In the UK they get large bonuses and knighthoods while in the EU they are made president.
- observation.

What we have now is a marriage of convenience. I think a proper coalition of all Major parties would be the best bet to make the important decisions we need to sort out the NHS etc and the over trillion pound debt - things squabbling parties will never do. Just an idea which saw us through once.

Happy days

Harry - Politics in the UK, for a beter phrase, have entered uncharted waters, so what you suggest could end up being what we get, failing evrything else we always have the "long-term plan" brigades promise to fall back on ;-)

Dear Harry,

(a) the deficit

The UK has run a substantial accumulated deficit since the year dot.

The first attempt at sorting it out by Henry VIII ( confiscation of Vatican property ) ran into the sands when the govt preferred luxurious palaces and fancy warships to financial prudence.

The next attempt was by parliament in 1640 which led to civil war.

The third ( successful ) attempt was with the founding of the Bank of England in 1694 which enabled the government to monetarise debt and run a permanent sinking deficit. This work of genius made it possible for the UK to finance foreign wars against a much larger and stronger country ( France ) and in particular the Napoleonic wars. Exactly the same stunt was used to finance wars against German Emperors and jumped up corporals.

Only a complete financial and economic moron / luddite such as Wolfgang Schäuble would envisage a permanent surplus. His ideas taken up by the Swabian house frau are what is killing the EU and sooner or later the UK too.

(b) "proper" coalition of Labour and Tory as in Germany

This has only happened once before when the Labour leader jumped ship and ran a Tory government. Not regarded as successful on the red side of the line.

Next problem. There is absolutely nothing that Labour and the Tories agree on. Zilch.

so there you have it.

There is also the minor point that a "grand coalition" makes everybody's vote a waste of time. In Germany it has given a powerful upward surge both to the communists and the fascists. If you admire, say, Comrade Putin a very good thing but for most of us regrettable.

"an idea which saw us through once."

Anybody who believes that there was some sort of suspension of politics during ww2 is seriously out of gas. Atlee fought very hard and succeeded in taking control of key cabinet posts. Most of the policies of the Labour landslide in 1945 were already well on the roll from 1942 eg NHS and education.

Strikes and such went on as usual too but were censored.

I have commented several times on various threads, that one idea that will not see us through, is Plan A - an economy relying on growth, fuelled by inflated house prices, low wages, and household spending from increased personal debt.

Any growth resulting from these is not sustainable in the long term and will all end in tears at some point in the future - the prime minister knows this hence the warning shots he fired over the last 48 hours and the voters will deliver their verdict on 07 May 2015 as to whether they agree Plan A is working and decide if they want to stick with it or not.

My last call on this one. A Full coalition would produce good results in my opinion., and the war time coalition was successful,in many ways, but of course different parties will have different views, but I believe they would come out with a plan of action.

When John Major left office the national debt was 238 billion. It is now almost 1,4 trillion - almost 40,000 per household. The interest on that is crippling and growing.

No current party will solve that problem because of the current blame game.

Happy days

Dear Harry

The "national debt" is not the same thing as an overdraft with yr bank or credit card balance. There is no such thing as "money" defined as gold and silver coin in a modern economy. All the "money" in personal and business accounts is part of the national debt, Sometimes believers in gold ( survivalists and Comrade Putin ) called this "fiat money".

Fairly obviously a growing economy will have more money in circulation and hence the "national debt" will increase. (Google "velocity of circulation" )

To be fair Osbourne is well aware of all that and when he talks about reducing the deficit what he really means by this is what he calls "the structural deficit".

What is that ? Well oddly enough even Osbourne does not intend a balanced budget ( bully for him ) but rather he intends to correct excessive deficits or what he likes to call the structural deficit. The coalition has eliminated about half of this and is on course to eliminate the balance over the next 5 years. Labour are committed to the same thing just with a different policy mix. It will probably happen thanks to the BOfE hence the gently rising £ound.

Whoever wins or nearly wins the next election UK financial and economic policy will tend to drift further and further away from €uroland. All major UK parties are committed to deficit financing for ever and the policy works so long as not carried on to excess.

OTOH German policies will beggar Europe and push even more EU citizens into looking for jobs in the UK. The red top press tends to focus on down at heel Bulgarians and so on. The reality is that an ever increasing number of well heeled French, Spanish and Italians have also settled in the UK ( mainly London ) bringing substantial capital and know how with them. There are over 1 million French residents in the UK. M Sarkozy is very unhappy about the situation.

Cameron is quite right to ask Germany to help out with the immigration problem. He is asking for the wrong help though. It is not controls on immigration he needs but a complete reversal of current German financial policy. Pigs may fly.

The best of things are sometimes done for the worst of reasons. Gordon Brown refused to join the €uro because it would restrict his powers to run a deficit. Thanks to him Osbourne is able to run a deficit of 6% in a reviving economy while France is heading to hell with a deficit of 4%.

Beware of what you wish for.

UK growth is not based on a housing bubble. Neither is it possible to recreate the UK as "workshop of the world". Manufacturing is 18% of the economy. External earnings are largely from capital inflows, media ( music, films and computer games ), the diverse cunning schemes of the City of London and tourism.

The key political problem is that the economy is doing fine but the majority of people are not seeing any benefit from it. Given the low skills base and nearly total mathematical inability of the population ( at least "A" level maths or science pass ) that is hardly surprising. It is very encouraging that the number of students going for A level maths has rocketed while social and media studies has declined.

It may be early days with nearly six months to go until the general election to make predictions, that said, the Labour Party will be hoping that this new poll will not be reflected come the time of the general election.

According to research by Survation for the Daily Record, the SNP would win 45.8 per cent of the popular vote in Scotland, Labour 23.9 per cent, the Conservatives 16.7 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 6.1 per cent.

If that swing was repeated uniformly across the country, it would mean the SNP winning 52 seats, Labour five and the Tories and the Liberal Democrats winning only one seat each.