General Chat

David Cameron has stated that he will renegotiate better terms for the UK, with the EU, also that he intends to recommend that we withdraw from the EU, if his terms are not met. The question is, do we know exactly what his objectives are? if not, how can we judge if he has been successful, or, is he going to settle for what he can get.

I,d sooner believe in the Tooth Fairy than anything any Polititian tells me, They,re all a load of Charletans with only their self interest at heart. :-|

Cameron is going to get some sort of protocol which will be incorporated into a future Treaty revision at a later date when the Treaty will in any case require significant amendments. The Germans want this in order to better order the €U budget and avoid any more Greek tragedies. There is no chance whatsoever of any treaty amendments by 2017. There is precedent for this as Denmark got a list of opt-outs in a protocol which was subsequently inc. in the Lisbon treaty.

It is improbable that the t's will be crossed and i's dotted on even a protocol before the referendum is held. Nevertheless the govt intends to campaign for a "yes" vote on essentially a draft document.

There is no possibility whatsoever of the UK parliament being able to veto any EU legislation and even Hammond, the foreign secretary, has admitted to that. It is also wildly unlikely that the current qualified majority rules will be changed so that it is easier to establish a blocking majority of several countries.

As Cameron is not willing to bring up items on which progress is sure to be utterly impossible ( fishing, agriculture etc etc ) that leaves just three items on the table, structural funds and EU immigrant benefits and protecting the City of London from €urozone taxes.

The UK want EU projects in say the UK to be financed directly by the UK under the EU banner rather than sending the funds to Brussels which then sends funds for the given project back to England. This sounds neat administratively BUT the Treasury has refused to earmark funds in this way for specific projects while in other countries such as Italy the funding would disappear into a black hole even darker than Brussels itself. Nevertheless the UK might get a little give on this.

France and Spain are the only two countries strongly opposed to London finance being outside the reach of Frankfurt inspired taxes. The UK is likely to get what it wants though.

Many might question the wisdom of deciding the fate of a great trading nation on the basis of benefits paid to, say, Polish plumbers and Romanian scrap merchants. Although the subject greatly exercises Mr Carswell, UKIP, the Tory back bench and the rabloid press the money involved is trivial set against the UK total budget. The main reason for that is unemployment among EU nationals resident in the UK is about 2% - well below that of the natives.

A far more rewarding policy would be to take some strong action concerning the largely unskilled non-EU population in the UK which would need no acquiescence from Brussels at all. That has not happened. Indeed manpower to halt illegal immigration from Syria etc etc has been cut by 30%.

The probability is that just as with the 1975 referendum once people get some sort of grasp of the UK/EU link to jobs the yes vote will be of the order 60-70%. The risks of going it alone will not be considered acceptable while the notions of "sovereignty" that so inflame UKIP and its ilk carry little weight with the majority. A shared sovereignty of a larger unit can be a much better bet than the sort of independence enjoyed by, say, Norway or for that matter Pimlico
( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passport_to_Pimlico )

It seems to escape the notice of the Daily Snail et al that 2.5 million Brits live in the EU and many of them work there they are far from all retirees in Tenerife. Most will vote and vote yes. Add that onto Welsh, Ulster and Scottish votes plus at least half the English voting "yes" and you should be able to see the prospects of a "no" vote are vanishingly small.

It is somewhat bizarre to see David Cameron, the supposedly great political tactician, dragging his party onto the reef of the EU where it will break up as surely as it did over the issue of the Corn Laws in the C19.

timendi causa est nescire

My goodness, yes that is it in a (large-ish) nutshell!

I would like to know what will happen to EU nationals currently living and working in UK, in the event of a 'No' vote...

*wot Rollo said* ;-)

Nothing much.

Most of the "out" movement concede that the UK would have to enter into an association / trade agreement similar to that for Norway. The Norway agreement demands that around 70% of EU law is implemented in Norway. The EU just fax it to them there is no discussion. That especially includes freedom of movement so all the Polish plumbers, French chefs and bankers etc etc would just go on as before.

All in all a "brexit" would be fairly pointless for anybody who wanted a mass exit of EU citizens or even a brake on new ones arriving.

The whole idea is mad. The swivel eyed tory right have their nut now brave Dave is looking for a sledgehammer with which to crack it. So far he has come up with some pretty manky nutcrackers.

zzzzzz

Before voting in the forthcoming EU Referendum, the British Public should ask themselves the following questions :-

Do we wish to be governed by an Unaccountable, Unelected, Left Wing Quango, run by Faceless Bureaucrats in Brussels, ( Auditors have refused to sign off the accounts for the last 12 years due to fraud, 6billion is the figure quoted for the last Audit) who will ride rough shod over any EU country that stands in its way, in order to achieve its goal of ultimate power over all member states, or, do we wish to be governed by our own elected Parliament, warts and all.

Do we want to continue to pay to this organisation billions every year, for what, when we could go back to the original aim, a Common Market, not an EU Government. From 1979 to 2010 we have paid into the EU £228 billion and received back from them £143 billion, the difference being £85 billion, has it been worth it?

Do we wish to continue an open door policy on immigration, or, do we wish to decide who comes to live, and work in this country, the argument that 2.5 million Britons live in Europe may be right, but, they do not all live in one country, the highest number being in Spain, 760,000, unlike the estimated 5 million which have come to the UK,, since 1997, and it is predicted this will rise by a further 9 million in the next 25 years. Is it any wonder therefore that our public services are under threat, Housing, NHS, Schools, Police.

Do we wish to continue with a flawed Human Rights Act, that only focuses on the rights of the criminals, rather than on the rights of the victims, it is ironic that the only ones who can afford in the main, to bring cases under this Act, is the criminals, why, because we the tax payer foot the bill.

"Do we wish to continue with a flawed Human Rights Act, that only focuses on the rights of the criminals"

It doesn't. It protects everyone's rights.

Our Human Rights Act was independently passed by our own Parliament back in 1998, with cross-party support. The Act simply incorporates the Convention on Human Rights - itself largely drafted by British lawyers, in the aftermath of the Second World War - into our own law. The Convention was adopted by the Council of Europe in 1950 – a body set up after the Second World War to promote democracy, human rights and the rule of law in Europe - it has nothing to do with the European Union.

According to news reports, the PM himself may not be too sure of what he really wants - that is until Angela Merkel put it in front of him.

"Unaccountable, Unelected, Left Wing Quango, run by Faceless Bureaucrats in Brussels, ( Auditors have refused to sign off the accounts for the last 12 years due to fraud, 6billion is the figure quoted for the last Audit) who will ride rough shod over any EU country that stands in its way, in order to achieve its goal of ultimate power over all member states"

You really should check out this stuff for yourself rather than relying on playground reading from Richard Desmond. Facless ? The names of senior EU bureaucrats are ez to find and most have web sites. How many UK cicvil service mandarins could you name? None? One or two? Sir Humphrey Appleby, Is that what you mean by faceless?

Proportional to total budget EU fraud is small and the auditors have declined to sign off for political reasons. The unexplained losses of the UK MoD are far higher both in actual cash and proportion of budget. The police have similar problems which is why Ms May won't increase their budget.

I am sure Frau Merkel would be fascinated to discover that she is "left wing" and that the bureaucrats down the road in Brussels and Luxembourg are really running the Reichstag show running "roughshod" over German institutions. Hey ho.

The only left wing government in the EU is that of Greece and look how far that is getting them. The right wings parties have a hefty majority in Europarl. The near permanent right wing bias of the EU is exactly why half the Labour Party were against it in 1975 and why the modern hard left still is. The rest were economically literate enough to recognise a jobs machine when they saw it.

However it now seems that as many as 200 Tory MEPs prefer to run the UK as a tight little cabal outside of the EU where they would be totally dominated by it with nul votes. Morons.

Grow up.

The argument about Brits living abroad does not really hold water because a significant number are retired and paying their way with pensions, claiming minimum benefits from for example Spain. A Spanish citizen living in the UK on the other hand is more likely to be younger and with a family using health services and schools etc.
Nothing against the Spanish by the way (apart from Bull fighting that is :-P) just an example of the difference between Brits living abroad and professional shoplifting / benefit fraud criminals from certain parts of the world ;-) ;-) ;-)

And, of course, there are no British criminals living abroad, are there?

UK citizens working in the EU outnumber retired people 3:1. As a work destination Germany is top followed by the Netherlands and France. There are also a good number of native Brits working in E Europe mostly retail, construction and agriculture. By and large they lift hefty pay packets.

There have always been significant numbers of immigrants to the UK from Spain and Italy. If they are working and paying tax I cannot see why that is a problem. There seems to be a wrong headed idea around that foreigners living in the UK is in itself a "bad thing".

Take as an example the motor components industry which is stirring back to life from its ancient lairs in Birmingham and the Black Country. This has happened thanks to massive financial investment by BMW, Tata, Nissan which is based on instant "just in time" access to the EU. 30-40% of a modern BMW is actually made in England! As well as removing financial and regulatory hurdles to such trade the EU also makes it ez for skilled workers and staff to move back and forward without a lot of visa hassle etc. Take the EU membership away and all this will go.

Once a blockhead always a blockhead I guess.

"And, of course, there are no British criminals living abroad, are there?"

Quite.

And if the UK signed up to Schengen and the rest of the crime & justice provisions it would find it a whole lot easier to catch them or stop them entering in the first place. Not to mention making life easier and simpler for all UK citizens. Instead we are moving towards an incipient totalitarian system. To start with count us all out, count us all in with dates and destinations. Next request an exit permission. And so on.

That even the Labour party is tempted by all this fascist nonsense is depressing. The only real opposition is in the ever shrinking liberal group of the Conservative party who are fighting a lost war against the takeover of their party by the dark side.

"Once a blockhead always a blockhead I guess".

Nothing like a friendly discussion is there.

IAN DURY (THE LATE, GREAT) & THE BLOCKHEADS
Hit Me With Your Rhythm Stick

In the deserts of Sudan and the gardens of Japan
From Milan to Yucatan, ev'ry woman, ev'ry man

Hit me your rhythm stick, hit me, hit me
Je t'adore, ich liebe dich, hit me, hit me, hit me
Hit me with your rhythm stick
Hit me slowly, hit me quick
Hit me, hit me, hit me

In the wilds of Borneo and the vineyards of Bordeaux
Eskimo, Arapaho, move their body to and fro

Hit me with your rhythm stick, hit me, hit me
Das ist gut, c'est fantastique, hit me, hit me, hit me
Hit me with your rhythm stick
It's nice to be a lunatic
Hit me, hit me, hit me

Hit me, hit me, hit

In the dock of Tiger Bay, on the road to Mandalay
From Bombay to Santa Fé, o'er the hills and far away

Hit me with your rhythm stick, hit me, hit me
C'est si bon, mm? Ist es nicht? Hit me, hit me, hit me
Hit me with your rhythm stick
Two fat persons, click, click, click
Hit me, hit me, hit me
Hit me, hit me, hit me - hit me, hit me ....

And thus ended the conversation.

The Governent and the EU are going to throw £££s at an IN campaign. On that basis the majority of factual information is going to be positively biased.

Where are the public going to get reasoned, factual, negative information?

It's all very well looking at the Bigger Picture. The man in the street has to rely on his own eyes and surroundings. it's all very well if you live in a middle class/wealthy area and socialise with the same, but different if you are less affluent and are one of many applying for a low skilled , low waged job.

France will build new infrastructure, with hoardings stating that it's been paid for by the EU. If anything similar has been funded in the UK, it's unlikely that there would be a constant reminder.

Those of you worried about overcrowding in England should consider moving to Germany. According to a recent report, the population there is projected to fall from 81 million to 67 million over the next 20 years or so, as they have the lowest birth rate in the whole world. Or perhaps Russia, where the population is expected to halve in the next 50 years, as they also have a low birth rate, the average male life expectancy is about 46, alcoholism is rife, and anyone who has the wherewithal is leaving.

"It doesn't, it protects everyone's rights."

Repeating myself once more, an Act which offers all rights, but requires no responsibility from an individual, for their actions, is a Flawed Act. The Conservatives have realised this, thus the British Bill of Rights is being drawn up. As expected it is being opposed by the Liberal Left, Lawyers, many of them in the House of Lords, and House of Commons from all parties, who see their source of income on this Gravy Train drying up.

I would imagine the founding fathers of this legislation, would be appalled at the way this Act is now being abused by the Legal profession to-day, A right to Family Life, being the biggest con at the moment, used by foreign murderers and rapists, to remain here. It is therefore refreshing that common sense is now being applied, something we do not often see from politicians.