General Chat

Just trying to balance the discussion.

Neither conservative (small c) nor liberal (small l) publications have a monoploy for being 'correct'.

Although not disputing the statistics, it was interesting to read how or why the crimes were catagorised. I did wonder if there had been a rise in reported 'Hate Crimes' after the Nice 14 July attack.

One of my rellies is an assistant Chief Constable of police and ihas access to the latest records which show that all kinds of hate crime are up sharply since June 24. The sort of campaign created by Farage and co has created space for these sorts of people to push the envelope further than they otherwise might have done.

Reported crime tends to run well below what is actually happening on the street.
There are various reasons for this.
(a) the police are seen as don't care/do nothing - the truth is that under the treasury cosh they don't have the resources and have to focus on the more serious stuff even if it wuld be better to show the badge earlier; community police have been cut right back
(b) those attacked fear retaliation on themselves / family / property - my OH reported abuse, spitting etc and was rewarded with hundreds of pounds of damage to her car for instance

Although the post brexit climate has created a very poor space in some parts of the country the hatred itself is probably not brexit linked for the most part i.e. idiots feel they can do so they do and the victims are the old, women, disabled as well as foreigners though using a foreign language is for sure a trigger.

Nonetheless current events both on the street and in the nation's politics are having a numbing effect on EU residents here. Some are going for UK citizenship others would not have it at any price. A great many have started making plans to leave. That is not only individiuals but people (inc Brits) who have established businesses and are significant employers.

As ever with the popular press & TV such incidents are given a great deal of prominence in the EU. Taken with the extremely negative attitude from no.10 downwards I would not rate the UK chances of getting any kind of deal out of the EU very highly and certainly not the current wish list.

The EU can take a hit on lost exports to the UK. German car firms have been told by Berlin not to expect any special deal - the EU 4 pillars take precedence. Look at the pickle Switzerland is in if you want proof of intention.

The UK, whatever Davis & co. may think, is not in n a position to lose out heavily on EU trade inc finance and services. The idea that the slack can be taken up by increased trade with the old Commonwealth and Asia is fantasy. Nearly all the major companies in the UK are foreign owned and the Single Market is key to their operations.

There are those who would point at recent trade figures and say that everything in the garden is rosy. Not at all.

Right now we remain full EU members ( a point which seems to have escaped the Daily Express ) and business has taken advantage of a weaker poiund. OTOH quite soon you will see sig price increases in the supermarket.

In the long run business deals don't happen in weeks but can take anything from a few months to several years ( eg jet engines ) to come to fruition. Such future business inc construction is already under the hammer as firms hang back and await developments.

T May cannot square the circle. If she wants immigration control as top priority then the result will be a country much poorer in every way. Refusing to allow parliament or the wider electorate any say on the brexit deal before it is implemented is both foolish and dangerous.

Caroline should stick to facts not fantasy.
Steptoe's horse and cart may be closer to current reality than her current icon.

Oh here we go again Rollo......I am sticking to facts. Not quite sure why you used Steptoe as your example........as I said earlier you can find whatever you want if you go looking for it.....my example of drunk driving is the best example.
As for your relative being the asst chief constable...are any of your relatives "normal common folk"...anyway I think this is just another example of those at the top not knowing what is going on in the real world ...talk to those that actually go out into the real world and follow the instructions from those at top eg lets find drunk drivers this week....let's label everything we can as a hate crime.....this is along the lines of very young children being reported for sex crimes when all they did was kiss another very young child on the cheek.
As with everything around Brexit we can agree to disagree about this....but I'm guessing someone will "attack" this comment again !!

my rellie is a totally norm,al person who worked very, very hard - and still doies

you (Caroline) are a fool, more than that I have no time to say

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/02/theresa-may-bleak-future-outside-single-market-eu-trade

My grandfather was a shepherd but I would be utter rubbish in a lambing yard, wouldn't even know how to build one. Just saying.

See this is where I should RR Rollo..no need to call me a fool dear boy

As always we can agree to disagree because I don't think we'd ever totally agree on anything Rollo but I will not call you childish names......

Pound spikes above $1.33 as IMF admits financial market turmoil triggered by shock Brexit vote has subsided

UK factories bounce back from Brexit shock

Siemens promises UK investment despite Brexit warning

UK sees record number of foreign investment projects

Yep sure is a disaster! lolol

My 2nd cousin is a shepherd in the Lake District. He is darn quick shearing a sheep and an ace with his dogs. He has no time at all for T May and her cronies.

Yes, I have had a go at shearing sheep. It is not that difficult if you have lots of time and the sheep is cooperative. Sadly time is short and so is the patience of sheep :-(

The G uncle of my mother established a substantial sheep farm in Yorkshire N Riding which is still in business today. Sadly he died of a sheep shearing disease when he was only 40.

ok?

Snigger,snigger.

Welcome to the Hotel California
Such a lovely place (such a lovely place)
Such a lovely face
Plenty of room at the Hotel California
Any time of year (any time of year) you can find it here
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
Relax, said the night man
We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave!

Suupercrutch time/ effect in biz economics is far more drawn out than a couple of months. Current stats mainly tell the story of the UK economy pre-brexit - doing well, not broke so don't fix it.

For the moment those that can are taking advantage of the drop in exchange rate before the higher price of future imports has to be factored in. Larger players have placed most large scale projects on hold and are playing "wait and see". Most don't beleieve that May will be successful in putting control of free movment ahead of the single market/ banking access.

So right now only construction has really been hit.

It is anybody's guess what will happen next. Between now and the new year we will have a phoney war with a lot of claim and counter claim from politicians and newspapers but large scale business will not do anything very immediate beyond what is already a big frop in new major projects.

When and if S50 is invoked and under what terms there will be movement. If the UK opts for / is forced into a "hard brexit" then the £ will fall hard and fast initially to around parity to the €uro with a very detrimental effect on people's life styles. Two years of that and the Tories chances at the next general election won't be worth tuppence. That is why biz biz doesn't believe T May. It believes she will be forced into ( or be replaced by someone who will ) deliver the SM and bank licence even at the price of conceding free movement.

Of course in that case we would be full circle back to Jun23 2016 and the rbexiters would scream betrayal. So there it is, North Korea type float yr boat or EU collectivisation.

My expectation is hard brexit so we shall be leaving.

So let me get this right Rollo....you don't think it will work in the end...wow you should have told us that before.......oh hang on....

Rollo I am not daft I studied economics, statistics and French (that decided by the HE board) and understand completely how the markets work QTR to QTR.

I am reporting what economists are saying currently and that the projected doom and gloom may not have the negative impact as predicted.

As you said, you can exit the UK so why complain?

And, of course, we can all look things up on Google.

As the pound slumped from $1.48 to $1.32 as the result of the Brexit Vote, the fact it is now $1.33 is hardly an endorsement of the success of Brexit.

The comments about business prospects looking good is just Daily Telegraph spin.

Oh dear :-(

If only we all relied on media reports and not on press releases from direct sources.

GBP surged higher against its major competitors following the release of some exceptonally strong manufacturing PMI data released by IHS Markit and the CIPS.

Not a Telegraph in sight

:-P

" I studied economics,.... and understand completely how the markets work QTR to QTR"

wow!

you may be the only person alive who can say that. Rush round to Great George Street now they are trying to hire smart people. The money's rubbish though so they're not doing very well and even worse on recruiting trade experts. With the latter the problem is not only the rubbish money but the prospect of being ordered around by airheads such as David Davis and Liam Fox.

With your vast knowledge maybe you can pick the bones out of this so we know where we are adrift.

http://bruegel.org/2016/04/understanding-hm-treasurys-brexit-analysis/

"And, of course, we can all look things up on Google."

of course Sharon but then you need to know just what to ask Google to look up.
otherwise as you have said it can a long while

Oh rollo rollo. ....we've been here before. ..you think you're always right. ....we know we're often right. ..Never the twan shall meet. ......

I am sure it can long while. Really must look that up and see what it means.

not at all Caroline you now have a link to the official Treasury model wchih predicts a very significant drop in UK GDP post brexit.

As you don't believe this why don't you point out just where they are wrong ?

or are you like all the other brexiters all puff and no blow ?